A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
