Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
